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WSH logo
WSH
Washington Nationals
Tue, Jun 30
7:10 PM ET
BOS logo
BOS
Boston Red Sox
55% Win Probability 45%
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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×1.00 · temp ×1.033 · expected total 9.0
WSH starter Locked
Cade Cavalli
4.00 ERA · 9.6 K/9
starter 4.58 R/9 over ~4.9 ip
bullpen 5.43 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 5.13 runs
BOS starter Locked
Connelly Early
3.59 ERA · 9.0 K/9
starter 3.85 R/9 over ~5.4 ip
bullpen 3.49 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.83 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head

No head-to-head meetings recorded this season.

Team Data (season)

WSHBOS
43-42Record36-46
5.28Runs / g4.00
5.22Runs allowed / g3.94
58%Scored first46%
36%Cover -1.537%
65%Cover +1.559%

Form & Market Trends

WSH Washington Nationals n 10/85/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 40% 51% 41%
Cover -1.5 20% 36% 26%
Cover +1.5 60% 65% 52%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 70% 55% 35%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 66% 56%
Team over 4.5 30% 53% 40%
Team F5 over 2.5 40% 49% 35%
Run in 1st (RFI) 50% 49% 52%
Extra innings 10% 12% 5%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 70% 56% 34%
Race to 4 70% 51% 30%
Race to 5 30% 41% 27%
Race to 6 10% 32% 21%
Race to 7 10% 27% 17%
BOS Boston Red Sox n 10/82/165
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 70% 44% 55%
Cover -1.5 60% 37% 41%
Cover +1.5 80% 59% 72%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 80% 35% 44%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 30% 40% 46%
Team over 4.5 70% 41% 43%
Team F5 over 2.5 50% 33% 41%
Run in 1st (RFI) 60% 54% 53%
Extra innings 10% 6% 12%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 70% 43% 43%
Race to 4 70% 37% 42%
Race to 5 70% 34% 35%
Race to 6 40% 22% 28%
Race to 7 0% 15% 22%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

WSH Washington Nationals Probable

1 James Wood L 0.828
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.249 0.713 13 97g
Hot (80°+) 0.258 0.792 19 116g
at Fenway Park no games
Overall 0.258 0.828 60 321g
2 Andrés Chaparro R 0.594
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.184 0.559 2 42g
Hot (80°+) 0.183 0.608 3 29g
at Fenway Park no games
Overall 0.193 0.594 5 90g
3 Curtis Mead R 0.658
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.241 0.693 8 74g
Hot (80°+) 0.227 0.673 5 56g
at Fenway Park 0.200 0.400 0 3g
Overall 0.230 0.658 18 197g
4 CJ Abrams L 0.757
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.232 0.655 11 104g
Hot (80°+) 0.253 0.723 17 133g
at Fenway Park 0.333 0.667 0 3g
Overall 0.257 0.757 56 364g
5 Dylan Crews R 0.625
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.220 0.601 5 47g
Hot (80°+) 0.211 0.576 3 39g
at Fenway Park no games
Overall 0.215 0.625 18 151g
6 Jacob Young R 0.615
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.259 0.666 6 111g
Hot (80°+) 0.255 0.663 5 126g
at Fenway Park 0.000 0.000 0 3g
Overall 0.241 0.615 13 350g
7 Luis García Jr. L 0.758
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.249 0.702 6 83g
Hot (80°+) 0.272 0.759 19 125g
at Fenway Park 0.083 0.250 0 3g
Overall 0.270 0.758 50 357g
8 Nasim Nuñez S 0.627
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.262 0.702 2 56g
Hot (80°+) 0.244 0.659 1 41g
at Fenway Park no games
Overall 0.237 0.627 4 169g
9 Keibert Ruiz S 0.637
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.214 0.554 4 71g
Hot (80°+) 0.255 0.670 11 91g
at Fenway Park 0.143 0.286 0 2g
Overall 0.244 0.637 21 249g

BOS Boston Red Sox Probable

1 Masataka Yoshida L 0.720
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.271 0.707 13 182g
Hot (80°+) 0.291 0.766 5 59g
at Fenway Park 0.278 0.729 7 105g
Overall 0.273 0.720 16 221g
2 Ceddanne Rafaela R 0.690
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.251 0.674 25 279g
Hot (80°+) 0.282 0.751 10 98g
at Fenway Park 0.264 0.706 19 196g
Overall 0.253 0.690 38 389g
3 Wilyer Abreu L 0.778
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.252 0.795 45 257g
Hot (80°+) 0.243 0.758 11 86g
at Fenway Park 0.248 0.759 22 165g
Overall 0.254 0.778 47 330g
4 Willson Contreras R 0.812
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.267 0.806 36 214g
Hot (80°+) 0.274 0.849 20 107g
at Fenway Park 0.303 0.924 9 43g
Overall 0.265 0.812 52 299g
5 Jarren Duran L 0.759
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.256 0.771 40 294g
Hot (80°+) 0.294 0.907 20 98g
at Fenway Park 0.276 0.808 22 195g
Overall 0.256 0.759 49 396g
6 Caleb Durbin R 0.681
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.247 0.687 12 159g
Hot (80°+) 0.219 0.598 3 46g
at Fenway Park 0.203 0.579 2 38g
Overall 0.248 0.681 17 220g
7 Anthony Seigler S 0.643
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.218 0.594 1 35g
Hot (80°+) 0.333 0.844 0 17g
at Fenway Park 0.333 1.012 1 5g
Overall 0.242 0.643 1 45g
8 Carlos Narváez R 0.673
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.219 0.640 12 123g
Hot (80°+) 0.276 0.740 4 32g
at Fenway Park 0.252 0.751 8 83g
Overall 0.227 0.673 17 174g
9 Tsung-Che Cheng L 0.243
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.077 0.297 0 5g
Hot (80°+) no games
at Fenway Park 0.111 0.422 0 3g
Overall 0.062 0.243 0 6g

Injured List

WSH (8 on IL)
BOS (12 on IL)