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NYM logo
NYM
New York Mets
Tue, Jun 30
7:07 PM ET
TOR logo
TOR
Toronto Blue Jays
50% Win Probability 50%
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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×1.04 · temp ×1.039 · expected total 9.1
NYM starter Locked
Nolan McLean
4.03 ERA · 10.7 K/9
starter 4.51 R/9 over ~5.4 ip
bullpen 3.65 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.49 runs
TOR starter Locked
Kevin Gausman
4.36 ERA · 8.8 K/9
starter 4.46 R/9 over ~5.4 ip
bullpen 4.03 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.62 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

0
NYM
1 game
3.0 avg runs
1
TOR

Team Data (season)

NYMTOR
35-50Record40-45
4.00Runs / g4.06
4.54Runs allowed / g4.44
44%Scored first42%
33%Cover -1.534%
60%Cover +1.565%

Form & Market Trends

NYM New York Mets n 10/85/162
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 10% 41% 51%
Cover -1.5 10% 33% 37%
Cover +1.5 50% 60% 67%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 0% 34% 48%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 50% 44% 52%
Team over 4.5 30% 34% 44%
Team F5 over 2.5 20% 34% 43%
Run in 1st (RFI) 40% 49% 46%
Extra innings 10% 15% 8%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 30% 39% 48%
Race to 4 20% 38% 43%
Race to 5 10% 29% 39%
Race to 6 10% 24% 28%
Race to 7 0% 20% 22%
TOR Toronto Blue Jays n 10/85/180
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 30% 47% 58%
Cover -1.5 20% 34% 42%
Cover +1.5 60% 65% 70%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 20% 36% 43%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 60% 47% 53%
Team over 4.5 30% 38% 48%
Team F5 over 2.5 10% 24% 44%
Run in 1st (RFI) 90% 54% 51%
Extra innings 10% 9% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 10% 34% 51%
Race to 4 10% 29% 49%
Race to 5 10% 27% 41%
Race to 6 20% 20% 34%
Race to 7 10% 13% 26%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

NYM New York Mets Probable

1 Carson Benge L 0.700
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.238 0.664 7 62g
Hot (80°+) 0.356 0.974 4 18g
at Rogers Centre 0.250 0.500 0 1g
Overall 0.257 0.700 9 82g
2 Juan Soto L 0.964
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.290 0.991 77 288g
Hot (80°+) 0.298 1.004 31 104g
at Rogers Centre 0.348 1.212 2 7g
Overall 0.282 0.964 105 397g
3 Bo Bichette R 0.736
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.281 0.742 23 238g
Hot (80°+) 0.282 0.767 8 55g
at Rogers Centre 0.281 0.784 15 109g
Overall 0.274 0.736 33 312g
4 Francisco Lindor S 0.808
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.272 0.827 50 255g
Hot (80°+) 0.252 0.743 16 95g
at Rogers Centre 0.200 0.933 2 4g
Overall 0.267 0.808 69 353g
5 Jared Young L 0.731
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.230 0.739 9 51g
Hot (80°+) 0.228 0.723 4 21g
at Rogers Centre 0.250 0.500 0 1g
Overall 0.220 0.731 10 62g
6 A.J. Ewing L 0.777
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.282 0.768 2 32g
Hot (80°+) 0.378 1.129 3 15g
at Rogers Centre 0.000 0.333 0 1g
Overall 0.275 0.777 4 45g
7 Mark Vientos R 0.748
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.247 0.771 44 212g
Hot (80°+) 0.242 0.774 18 84g
at Rogers Centre 0.000 0.067 0 4g
Overall 0.245 0.748 59 315g
8 Brett Baty L 0.672
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.237 0.683 21 195g
Hot (80°+) 0.226 0.656 6 61g
at Rogers Centre 0.000 0.000 0 1g
Overall 0.235 0.672 25 261g
9 Francisco Alvarez R 0.728
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.250 0.725 22 175g
Hot (80°+) 0.277 0.844 10 57g
at Rogers Centre 0.308 0.973 1 4g
Overall 0.247 0.728 30 244g

TOR Toronto Blue Jays Probable

1 George Springer R 0.786
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.262 0.796 45 272g
Hot (80°+) 0.235 0.722 8 49g
at Rogers Centre 0.265 0.820 36 193g
Overall 0.256 0.786 63 363g
2 Nathan Lukes L 0.745
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.273 0.749 16 175g
Hot (80°+) 0.328 0.939 6 39g
at Rogers Centre 0.257 0.689 6 116g
Overall 0.273 0.745 17 225g
3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R 0.873
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.310 0.871 48 312g
Hot (80°+) 0.362 1.114 20 63g
at Rogers Centre 0.293 0.846 30 212g
Overall 0.304 0.873 65 414g
4 Kazuma Okamoto R 0.771
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.242 0.794 14 61g
Hot (80°+) 0.214 0.588 1 7g
at Rogers Centre 0.259 0.796 10 46g
Overall 0.236 0.771 19 83g
5 Ernie Clement R 0.730
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.272 0.684 18 294g
Hot (80°+) 0.308 0.841 6 60g
at Rogers Centre 0.284 0.731 17 206g
Overall 0.285 0.730 29 396g
6 Brandon Valenzuela S 0.749
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.261 0.802 6 41g
Hot (80°+) 0.250 0.562 0 4g
at Rogers Centre 0.250 0.849 5 28g
Overall 0.240 0.749 7 53g
7 Luis Urías R 0.660
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.227 0.612 5 99g
Hot (80°+) 0.183 0.500 2 38g
at Rogers Centre 0.292 0.893 1 10g
Overall 0.224 0.660 13 143g
8 Yohendrick Piñango L 0.746
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.315 0.857 5 34g
Hot (80°+) 0.050 0.145 0 6g
at Rogers Centre 0.264 0.770 3 24g
Overall 0.270 0.746 5 46g
9 Myles Straw R 0.645
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.210 0.539 3 168g
Hot (80°+) 0.304 0.808 4 41g
at Rogers Centre 0.262 0.694 3 119g
Overall 0.248 0.645 6 232g

Injured List

NYM (8 on IL)
TOR (10 on IL)