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DET
Detroit Tigers
Tue, Jun 30
7:05 PM ET
NYY logo
NYY
New York Yankees
43% Win Probability 57%
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Our analysts — Vega & Scoop — weigh in about 3 hours before first pitch.

Starting Pitchers

park ×1.03 · temp ×1.042 · expected total 7.7
DET starter Locked
Tarik Skubal
3.32 ERA · 10.0 K/9
starter 3.93 R/9 over ~5.7 ip
bullpen 4.31 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 4.38 runs
NYY starter Locked
Cam Schlittler
1.62 ERA · 10.6 K/9
starter 2.93 R/9 over ~5.7 ip
bullpen 3.47 R/9 for the rest
expected to allow 3.37 runs

Each starter's baseline (shrunk to league by sample) blended with the bullpen over the park's typical starter innings, then scaled by park run factor and game-time temperature. Descriptive, not a market edge.

By the conditions

history for tonight's matchup

What's happened when these teams played in these exact conditions — vs the league average (the tick).

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Head to Head 2026 season

2
DET
4 games
7.8 avg runs
2
NYY

Team Data (season)

DETNYY
36-49Record48-36
4.13Runs / g4.90
4.12Runs allowed / g3.75
55%Scored first60%
32%Cover -1.546%
61%Cover +1.573%

Form & Market Trends

DET Detroit Tigers n 10/85/170
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 50% 42% 54%
Cover -1.5 40% 32% 40%
Cover +1.5 70% 61% 62%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 70% 44% 46%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 41% 52%
Team over 4.5 60% 40% 45%
Team F5 over 2.5 50% 42% 45%
Run in 1st (RFI) 30% 45% 45%
Extra innings 20% 8% 9%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 50% 45% 47%
Race to 4 50% 38% 46%
Race to 5 50% 35% 36%
Race to 6 30% 24% 31%
Race to 7 20% 16% 24%
NYY New York Yankees n 10/84/169
Winner & spread
L10 Szn Prev
Win 20% 57% 57%
Cover -1.5 10% 46% 43%
Cover +1.5 30% 73% 70%
Lead after 5 (F5 spread) 0% 43% 56%
Totals
L10 Szn Prev
Over 8.5 (game) 40% 45% 51%
Team over 4.5 0% 43% 50%
Team F5 over 2.5 0% 38% 49%
Run in 1st (RFI) 60% 54% 56%
Extra innings 10% 6% 8%
Race to N runs (first to score)
L10 Szn Prev
Race to 3 30% 54% 56%
Race to 4 30% 51% 50%
Race to 5 0% 38% 41%
Race to 6 0% 32% 33%
Race to 7 0% 29% 28%

Cover -1.5 = won by 2+; Cover +1.5 = lost by ≤1 or won. F5 = first five innings. RFI = a run scored in the 1st. Race to N = team first to N runs. Descriptive; low-n splits are noisy.

Projected Lineups

Tap a batter for tonight's matchup splits — vs the opposing starter's hand, in the game's temperature, and at this park (vs their overall).

DET Detroit Tigers Probable

1 Matt Vierling R 0.676
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.236 0.664 15 184g
Hot (80°+) 0.229 0.649 7 86g
at Yankee Stadium 0.286 0.714 0 4g
Overall 0.238 0.676 22 254g
2 Dillon Dingler R 0.748
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.253 0.730 25 173g
Hot (80°+) 0.244 0.657 5 65g
at Yankee Stadium 0.412 1.150 1 4g
Overall 0.257 0.748 34 239g
3 Kevin McGonigle L 0.813
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.301 0.871 5 59g
Hot (80°+) 0.293 0.895 1 12g
at Yankee Stadium 0.500 1.000 0 1g
Overall 0.284 0.813 6 82g
4 Spencer Torkelson R 0.727
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.217 0.690 38 252g
Hot (80°+) 0.238 0.746 15 82g
at Yankee Stadium 0.231 0.641 0 7g
Overall 0.226 0.727 54 346g
5 Hao-Yu Lee R 0.682
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.286 0.805 3 25g
Hot (80°+) 0.250 0.641 0 4g
at Yankee Stadium 0.400 1.000 0 1g
Overall 0.258 0.682 3 47g
6 Jahmai Jones R 0.726
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.196 0.645 3 102g
Hot (80°+) 0.173 0.601 2 55g
at Yankee Stadium 0.136 0.447 0 17g
Overall 0.229 0.726 10 165g
7 Zach McKinstry L 0.681
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.223 0.651 16 263g
Hot (80°+) 0.253 0.777 10 103g
at Yankee Stadium 0.231 0.516 0 4g
Overall 0.233 0.681 20 335g
8 Ben Malgeri R 0.533
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP — — 0 2g
Hot (80°+) 0.000 0.333 0 2g
at Yankee Stadium 0.000 0.000 0 1g
Overall 0.200 0.533 0 5g
9 James Outman L 0.520
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs RHP 0.149 0.535 11 126g
Hot (80°+) 0.196 0.612 2 31g
at Yankee Stadium 0.250 0.500 0 1g
Overall 0.148 0.520 12 175g

NYY New York Yankees Probable

1 Ben Rice L 0.818
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.200 0.650 8 71g
Hot (80°+) 0.233 0.813 22 94g
at Yankee Stadium 0.233 0.833 32 134g
Overall 0.245 0.818 56 273g
2 Cody Bellinger L 0.787
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.311 0.846 12 96g
Hot (80°+) 0.276 0.838 24 107g
at Yankee Stadium 0.315 0.958 26 122g
Overall 0.266 0.787 59 372g
3 Paul Goldschmidt R 0.746
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.291 0.831 19 108g
Hot (80°+) 0.255 0.705 17 143g
at Yankee Stadium 0.238 0.683 10 111g
Overall 0.264 0.746 46 365g
4 Jazz Chisholm Jr. L 0.752
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.244 0.726 16 105g
Hot (80°+) 0.272 0.883 24 95g
at Yankee Stadium 0.249 0.795 30 146g
Overall 0.240 0.752 70 379g
5 Jasson Domínguez S 0.699
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.168 0.478 1 37g
Hot (80°+) 0.273 0.763 6 46g
at Yankee Stadium 0.245 0.695 4 82g
Overall 0.242 0.699 15 169g
6 Anthony Volpe R 0.665
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.266 0.752 7 98g
Hot (80°+) 0.215 0.643 13 117g
at Yankee Stadium 0.222 0.652 20 184g
Overall 0.232 0.665 34 370g
7 Spencer Jones L 0.707
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.154 0.385 0 8g
Hot (80°+) 0.409 1.136 1 9g
at Yankee Stadium 0.320 1.014 1 11g
Overall 0.235 0.707 2 28g
8 Austin Wells L 0.658
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.196 0.585 4 79g
Hot (80°+) 0.250 0.795 16 89g
at Yankee Stadium 0.206 0.658 17 157g
Overall 0.207 0.658 40 318g
9 José Caballero R 0.656
SplitAVGOPSHRn
vs LHP 0.243 0.711 11 103g
Hot (80°+) 0.245 0.678 6 101g
at Yankee Stadium 0.250 0.705 5 66g
Overall 0.235 0.656 22 340g

Injured List

DET (11 on IL)
NYY (6 on IL)