Computer Rankings vs. the AP Poll & CFP Committee 2025 | Predicted Sports
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The Rankings vs. the Committee

The polls are ballots. The committee is a room. Our ranking is a model that watched every snap of every game and never took a vote. Below: our PS Rating power ranking beside the AP Top 25, the Coaches Poll and the CFP committee, with every real disagreement flagged.

2025 season · model through January 20, 2026 · polls: week 16

The snubs · humans too low
SMU us #14 · CFP committee NR
Washington us #16 · CFP committee NR
Navy us #18 · CFP committee NR
Penn State us #23 · CFP committee NR
James Madison us #8 · CFP committee #24
Notre Dame us #5 · CFP committee #11
Overrated · humans too high
Houston CFP committee #21 · us #50
Arizona CFP committee #17 · us #39
Georgia Tech CFP committee #22 · us #41
Virginia CFP committee #19 · us #37
Oklahoma CFP committee #8 · us #20
Texas A&M CFP committee #7 · us #15
Team Rec Model AP CFP Gap
Indiana
Big Ten
16-0 #1 #1 #1 +0
Oregon
Big Ten
13-2 #2 #5 #5 +3
Ohio State
Big Ten
12-2 #3 #3 #2 -1
Georgia
SEC
12-2 #4 #2 #3 -1
Notre Dame
FBS Independents
10-2 #5 #9 #11 +6
Ole Miss
SEC
13-2 #6 #6 #6 +0
Miami
ACC
13-3 #7 #10 #10 +3
James Madison
Sun Belt
12-2 #8 #19 #24 +16
Texas
SEC
10-3 #9 #14 #13 +4
BYU
Big 12
12-2 #10 #12 #12 +2
Texas Tech
Big 12
12-2 #11 #4 #4 -7
Alabama
SEC
11-4 #12 #11 #9 -3
Utah
Big 12
11-2 #13 #15 #15 +2
SMU
ACC
9-4 #14 ·
Texas A&M
SEC
11-2 #15 #7 #7 -8
Washington
Big Ten
9-4 #16 ·
Michigan
Big Ten
9-4 #17 #18 #18 +1
Navy
American Athletic
11-2 #18 #22 ·
Tulane
American Athletic
11-3 #19 #17 #20 +1
Oklahoma
SEC
10-3 #20 #8 #8 -12
Iowa
Big Ten
9-4 #21 #23 +2
Vanderbilt
SEC
10-3 #22 #13 #14 -8
Penn State
Big Ten
7-6 #23 ·
USC
Big Ten
9-4 #24 #16 #16 -8
North Texas
American Athletic
12-2 #25 #23 #25 +0
Tennessee
SEC
8-5 #28 ·
Missouri
SEC
8-5 #32 #25 ·
Virginia
ACC
11-3 #37 #20 #19 -18
Arizona
Big 12
9-4 #39 #21 #17 -22
Georgia Tech
ACC
9-4 #41 #24 #22 -19
Houston
Big 12
10-3 #50 #21 -29

Model = our PS Rating power ranking, the composite of our Elo, Glicko and net-efficiency systems (every result, margin and schedule; no votes, no brand names). Gap = the CFP committee rank minus ours; positive means the humans have that team lower than the results do, negative means higher. The CFP committee publishes from roughly week 10, so its column is blank before then. Rankings shown are each poll's latest release for the season. The schedule evidence behind these gaps lives on the strength of schedule page. Graded in public.