College Football

Playoff Predictor

We play out the whole season 10,000 times off our team ratings (with a preseason prior built from roster carryover, returning production and recruiting talent), then count how often each team wins its conference, makes the 12-team College Football Playoff, and wins it all. Our model's projections, graded in public. Updated Aug 13, 2026.

Conference Odds Projected Bracket

Big Ten

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Indiana	9.8 (7-12)	53%	33%	79%	53%	14.3%
Ohio State	8.3 (6-11)	25%	14%	56%	28%	6.8%
Oregon	9.0 (6-12)	34%	18%	56%	27%	6.1%
Iowa	7.8 (5-11)	16%	7%	27%	8%	2.2%
Penn State	8.0 (5-11)	19%	7%	22%	5%	1.3%
Washington	6.9 (4-10)	10%	4%	21%	6%	1.2%
USC	6.9 (4-10)	8%	4%	19%	5%	1.2%
Michigan	6.4 (4-9)	7%	3%	16%	5%	0.9%
Illinois	6.9 (4-10)	9%	3%	10%	2%	0.5%
Minnesota	6.5 (4-9)	5%	2%	8%	2%	—
Northwestern	5.5 (3-8)	2%	1%	5%	1%	—
Nebraska	5.2 (2-8)	2%	1%	3%	1%	—
Rutgers	5.9 (3-9)	3%	1%	2%	0%	—
Wisconsin	5.6 (3-8)	3%	1%	2%	0%	—
UCLA	5.1 (2-8)	2%	0%	1%	0%	—
Michigan State	4.4 (2-7)	1%	0%	1%	0%	—
Purdue	3.7 (1-6)	0%	0%	0%	0%	—
Maryland	4.7 (2-8)	1%	0%	1%	0%	—

FBS Independents

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Notre Dame	9.0 (7-11)	0%	0%	56%	27%	6.3%
UConn	7.4 (5-10)	0%	0%	1%	0%	—

ACC

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Miami	9.3 (7-12)	51%	31%	53%	23%	6.0%
SMU	8.3 (5-11)	33%	16%	27%	7%	1.9%
Louisville	7.4 (4-11)	21%	10%	18%	4%	1.2%
Duke	7.0 (4-10)	14%	7%	15%	4%	1.0%
Virginia	7.6 (5-11)	20%	9%	13%	2%	0.6%
Clemson	7.3 (4-10)	10%	5%	12%	3%	0.6%
NC State	7.1 (4-10)	15%	7%	11%	2%	—
Wake Forest	6.1 (3-9)	7%	3%	6%	1%	—
Georgia Tech	6.3 (3-9)	5%	2%	7%	1%	—
Pittsburgh	7.1 (4-10)	12%	5%	7%	1%	—
California	5.6 (3-8)	5%	2%	2%	0%	—
Florida State	4.8 (2-8)	1%	0%	1%	0%	—
North Carolina	4.1 (1-7)	1%	0%	1%	0%	—
Stanford	4.2 (2-7)	2%	1%	1%	0%	—
Boston College	4.6 (2-7)	1%	0%	1%	0%	—
Virginia Tech	4.4 (2-7)	1%	0%	1%	0%	—
Syracuse	3.9 (1-7)	1%	0%	0%	0%	—

SEC

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Georgia	8.7 (6-12)	35%	20%	57%	29%	6.0%
Ole Miss	8.5 (6-11)	32%	18%	52%	25%	5.7%
Texas	7.8 (5-11)	25%	13%	41%	17%	4.1%
Alabama	7.7 (5-11)	21%	10%	31%	11%	2.4%
Vanderbilt	7.5 (5-10)	18%	9%	26%	8%	1.8%
Texas A&M	7.5 (5-10)	18%	9%	27%	9%	1.7%
Oklahoma	6.9 (4-10)	12%	6%	20%	6%	1.3%
Missouri	6.4 (4-9)	8%	3%	12%	3%	0.7%
Tennessee	6.5 (4-9)	9%	4%	12%	3%	0.6%
LSU	6.1 (3-9)	7%	3%	8%	2%	—
Auburn	5.4 (3-8)	3%	1%	4%	1%	—
Florida	5.3 (2-8)	3%	1%	4%	1%	—
South Carolina	5.6 (3-8)	4%	1%	4%	1%	—
Kentucky	5.2 (2-8)	3%	1%	3%	1%	—
Arkansas	4.4 (2-7)	1%	0%	1%	0%	—
Mississippi State	4.5 (2-7)	1%	0%	1%	0%	—

Big 12

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Texas Tech	9.3 (6-12)	47%	25%	42%	14%	3.4%
Utah	8.4 (6-11)	32%	18%	37%	13%	2.9%
BYU	7.9 (5-11)	25%	13%	31%	10%	2.1%
Arizona	6.9 (4-10)	13%	7%	17%	5%	1.2%
TCU	7.2 (4-10)	15%	8%	18%	5%	1.1%
Kansas State	6.9 (4-10)	13%	6%	10%	2%	—
Arizona State	6.5 (4-9)	10%	5%	9%	2%	—
Iowa State	6.9 (4-10)	13%	6%	11%	2%	—
Houston	7.0 (4-10)	12%	5%	8%	1%	—
Cincinnati	5.4 (3-8)	3%	2%	3%	0%	—
West Virginia	5.2 (2-8)	3%	1%	2%	0%	—
Baylor	5.3 (2-8)	3%	1%	2%	0%	—
Kansas	5.6 (3-8)	4%	2%	2%	0%	—
Colorado	4.5 (2-7)	2%	1%	1%	0%	—
UCF	5.6 (3-8)	4%	2%	2%	0%	—
Oklahoma State	3.5 (1-6)	0%	0%	0%	0%	—

Sun Belt

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
James Madison	9.0 (6-12)	49%	32%	20%	2%	1.6%
Old Dominion	8.1 (5-11)	36%	20%	10%	1%	0.6%
Arkansas State	6.8 (4-10)	16%	6%	1%	0%	—
Louisiana Tech	6.6 (4-10)	16%	7%	2%	0%	—
Georgia Southern	6.1 (3-9)	12%	6%	2%	0%	—
Troy	6.5 (4-9)	14%	6%	1%	0%	—
Louisiana	6.6 (4-10)	15%	6%	1%	0%	—
Coastal Carolina	5.6 (3-9)	7%	3%	0%	0%	—
Marshall	6.5 (4-9)	12%	5%	1%	0%	—
App State	5.3 (3-8)	6%	2%	0%	0%	—
Southern Miss	4.8 (2-8)	4%	2%	0%	0%	—
South Alabama	5.5 (3-8)	8%	3%	0%	0%	—
UL Monroe	4.4 (2-7)	2%	1%	0%	0%	—
Georgia State	3.7 (1-6)	1%	0%	0%	0%	—

American Athletic

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Navy	8.1 (5-11)	36%	20%	11%	1%	0.7%
Tulane	7.7 (5-11)	27%	14%	8%	1%	—
North Texas	7.5 (5-10)	26%	14%	8%	1%	—
East Carolina	7.6 (5-11)	27%	14%	6%	0%	—
South Florida	7.6 (5-11)	21%	11%	5%	0%	—
UTSA	7.2 (4-10)	18%	9%	4%	0%	—
Army	7.2 (4-10)	20%	10%	4%	0%	—
Memphis	6.2 (3-9)	10%	4%	2%	0%	—
UAB	4.7 (2-8)	3%	1%	0%	0%	—
Temple	4.9 (2-8)	4%	1%	0%	0%	—
Florida Atlantic	4.8 (2-8)	3%	1%	0%	0%	—
Rice	4.2 (2-7)	2%	1%	0%	0%	—
Tulsa	4.7 (2-7)	2%	1%	0%	0%	—
Charlotte	3.3 (1-6)	1%	0%	0%	0%	—

Mid-American

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Western Michigan	8.1 (5-11)	49%	28%	7%	0%	—
Ohio	8.3 (5-11)	37%	21%	6%	0%	—
Toledo	8.0 (5-11)	32%	17%	4%	0%	—
Central Michigan	5.7 (3-9)	9%	4%	0%	0%	—
Buffalo	5.7 (3-9)	14%	6%	0%	0%	—
Miami (OH)	6.6 (4-10)	26%	12%	1%	0%	—
Kent State	4.5 (2-7)	4%	2%	0%	0%	—
Akron	5.2 (2-8)	12%	5%	0%	0%	—
Eastern Michigan	5.5 (3-8)	6%	3%	0%	0%	—
Bowling Green	4.9 (2-8)	5%	2%	0%	0%	—
Ball State	4.5 (2-7)	4%	1%	0%	0%	—
Massachusetts	3.6 (1-6)	1%	0%	0%	0%	—

Pac-12

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Texas State	6.3 (4-9)	36%	18%	4%	0%	—
Boise State	6.3 (3-9)	36%	19%	4%	0%	—
San Diego State	6.3 (3-9)	34%	17%	3%	0%	—
Washington State	6.1 (3-9)	31%	16%	3%	0%	—
Fresno State	6.5 (4-10)	34%	18%	3%	0%	—
Utah State	5.0 (2-8)	18%	8%	1%	0%	—
Colorado State	3.7 (1-6)	5%	2%	0%	0%	—
Oregon State	3.6 (1-6)	6%	2%	0%	0%	—

Mountain West

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
UNLV	7.6 (4-11)	41%	23%	4%	0%	—
New Mexico	7.9 (5-11)	42%	23%	3%	0%	—
Hawai'i	7.7 (5-11)	42%	23%	3%	0%	—
Air Force	6.0 (3-9)	20%	9%	1%	0%	—
Nevada	5.4 (2-8)	13%	5%	0%	0%	—
Wyoming	5.3 (2-8)	13%	5%	0%	0%	—
Northern Illinois	4.8 (2-8)	10%	4%	0%	0%	—
San José State	5.1 (2-8)	13%	5%	0%	0%	—
UTEP	4.3 (2-7)	6%	2%	0%	0%	—

Conference USA

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Jacksonville State	7.2 (4-10)	35%	19%	2%	0%	—
Western Kentucky	6.8 (4-10)	32%	17%	2%	0%	—
Kennesaw State	7.5 (5-11)	35%	19%	2%	0%	—
Delaware	6.0 (3-9)	20%	10%	1%	0%	—
Florida International	6.6 (4-10)	24%	11%	1%	0%	—
Missouri State	5.4 (3-9)	15%	7%	0%	0%	—
Liberty	5.9 (3-9)	17%	8%	0%	0%	—
New Mexico State	5.0 (2-8)	8%	3%	0%	0%	—
Middle Tennessee	4.7 (2-8)	7%	3%	0%	0%	—
Sam Houston	4.4 (2-7)	6%	2%	0%	0%	—

Proj W = mean projected wins including a possible conference championship game (10th to 90th percentile in parentheses). CFP = makes the 12-team playoff (5 conference champions + 7 at-large). The selection committee is modeled on its own 2014-2025 rankings (record, rating, schedule strength, quality wins, and the committee's measured power-conference lean), FCS opponents are modeled as one fixed weak team, and there is no market anchor. Independents play no conference championship game. Switch to the Projected Bracket tab for the most-likely field.