College Football

Playoff Predictor

We play out the whole season 10,000 times off our team ratings (with a preseason prior built from roster carryover, returning production and recruiting talent), then count how often each team wins its conference, makes the 12-team College Football Playoff, and wins it all. Our model's projections, graded in public. Updated Aug 22, 2026.

Conference Odds Projected Bracket

Big Ten

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Indiana	9.8 (7-12)	52%	33%	79%	53%	14.8%
Ohio State	8.3 (6-11)	24%	13%	56%	28%	6.5%
Oregon	9.0 (6-12)	34%	18%	57%	27%	6.4%
Iowa	7.8 (5-11)	17%	7%	27%	8%	2.1%
Penn State	8.0 (5-11)	19%	8%	23%	6%	1.5%
Washington	7.0 (4-10)	10%	4%	21%	7%	1.3%
USC	6.9 (4-10)	9%	4%	19%	5%	1.1%
Michigan	6.4 (4-9)	6%	3%	16%	5%	1.0%
Illinois	6.8 (4-10)	8%	3%	9%	2%	—
Minnesota	6.5 (4-9)	6%	2%	9%	2%	—
Northwestern	5.5 (3-8)	2%	1%	5%	1%	—
Nebraska	5.1 (2-8)	2%	1%	3%	1%	—
Maryland	4.7 (2-8)	1%	0%	0%	0%	—
Rutgers	5.9 (3-9)	3%	1%	2%	0%	—
Michigan State	4.4 (2-7)	1%	0%	1%	0%	—
Wisconsin	5.6 (3-8)	3%	1%	2%	0%	—
UCLA	5.1 (2-8)	2%	0%	1%	0%	—
Purdue	3.6 (1-6)	0%	0%	0%	0%	—

FBS Independents

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Notre Dame	9.1 (7-11)	0%	0%	55%	28%	6.7%
UConn	7.3 (5-10)	0%	0%	1%	0%	—

ACC

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Miami	9.3 (7-12)	52%	31%	54%	23%	6.2%
SMU	8.3 (6-11)	33%	16%	27%	7%	1.7%
Louisville	7.4 (4-10)	21%	10%	17%	4%	0.9%
Duke	7.0 (4-10)	14%	7%	15%	4%	0.8%
Virginia	7.6 (5-11)	20%	9%	13%	2%	0.6%
Clemson	7.3 (4-10)	10%	5%	12%	2%	0.6%
NC State	7.1 (4-10)	15%	7%	11%	2%	0.6%
Pittsburgh	7.1 (4-10)	12%	6%	7%	1%	—
Wake Forest	6.1 (3-9)	6%	3%	6%	1%	—
Georgia Tech	6.3 (3-9)	5%	2%	6%	1%	—
California	5.6 (3-8)	4%	1%	2%	0%	—
Florida State	4.8 (2-8)	1%	0%	2%	0%	—
North Carolina	4.0 (1-7)	1%	0%	1%	0%	—
Stanford	4.3 (2-7)	2%	1%	1%	0%	—
Syracuse	3.8 (1-7)	1%	0%	0%	0%	—
Boston College	4.5 (2-7)	1%	0%	1%	0%	—
Virginia Tech	4.4 (2-7)	1%	1%	1%	0%	—

SEC

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Georgia	8.6 (6-11)	34%	19%	55%	27%	5.7%
Ole Miss	8.4 (6-11)	31%	17%	51%	24%	5.5%
Texas	7.8 (5-11)	26%	13%	41%	18%	3.7%
Alabama	7.8 (5-11)	21%	10%	32%	11%	2.5%
Vanderbilt	7.6 (5-11)	19%	9%	27%	9%	1.9%
Texas A&M	7.5 (5-11)	18%	9%	27%	8%	1.9%
Oklahoma	6.9 (4-10)	13%	6%	22%	6%	1.4%
Tennessee	6.5 (4-9)	10%	4%	13%	3%	0.6%
Missouri	6.4 (4-9)	8%	3%	12%	3%	0.6%
LSU	6.1 (3-9)	6%	2%	9%	2%	—
Auburn	5.5 (3-8)	3%	1%	3%	1%	—
Florida	5.2 (2-8)	3%	1%	4%	1%	—
South Carolina	5.6 (3-9)	4%	1%	4%	1%	—
Kentucky	5.1 (2-8)	3%	1%	3%	1%	—
Mississippi State	4.4 (2-7)	1%	0%	1%	0%	—
Arkansas	4.3 (2-7)	1%	0%	1%	0%	—

Big 12

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Texas Tech	9.3 (7-12)	47%	26%	42%	15%	3.7%
Utah	8.5 (6-11)	32%	18%	37%	13%	3.2%
BYU	7.9 (5-11)	26%	14%	31%	10%	2.4%
Arizona	6.9 (4-10)	13%	7%	17%	5%	1.0%
TCU	7.2 (4-10)	15%	7%	18%	5%	0.9%
Iowa State	6.9 (4-10)	12%	6%	10%	2%	0.5%
Kansas State	6.9 (4-10)	12%	6%	10%	2%	—
Houston	7.0 (4-10)	12%	5%	8%	1%	—
Arizona State	6.5 (4-9)	10%	4%	9%	2%	—
Cincinnati	5.4 (3-8)	3%	1%	3%	0%	—
Baylor	5.3 (3-8)	3%	1%	2%	0%	—
Kansas	5.6 (3-8)	4%	1%	2%	0%	—
West Virginia	5.2 (2-8)	3%	1%	2%	0%	—
UCF	5.6 (3-8)	4%	1%	1%	0%	—
Colorado	4.6 (2-7)	2%	1%	1%	0%	—
Oklahoma State	3.5 (1-6)	0%	0%	0%	0%	—

Sun Belt

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
James Madison	8.9 (6-12)	49%	31%	19%	3%	1.6%
Old Dominion	8.1 (5-11)	36%	20%	10%	1%	0.6%
Georgia Southern	6.1 (3-9)	12%	6%	2%	0%	—
Louisiana Tech	6.6 (4-10)	17%	7%	2%	0%	—
Troy	6.5 (4-9)	14%	6%	1%	0%	—
Marshall	6.5 (4-9)	13%	6%	1%	0%	—
Arkansas State	6.8 (4-10)	16%	7%	1%	0%	—
Southern Miss	4.8 (2-8)	4%	2%	0%	0%	—
Louisiana	6.6 (4-10)	16%	6%	1%	0%	—
South Alabama	5.5 (3-9)	8%	3%	0%	0%	—
Coastal Carolina	5.6 (3-8)	7%	3%	0%	0%	—
App State	5.3 (3-8)	6%	2%	0%	0%	—
Georgia State	3.8 (1-7)	1%	0%	0%	0%	—
UL Monroe	4.4 (2-7)	2%	1%	0%	0%	—

American Athletic

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Navy	8.1 (5-11)	36%	19%	11%	1%	0.7%
Tulane	7.7 (5-11)	27%	15%	8%	1%	—
North Texas	7.5 (5-10)	26%	14%	8%	1%	—
South Florida	7.6 (5-11)	21%	11%	5%	0%	—
Army	7.2 (4-10)	22%	11%	4%	0%	—
East Carolina	7.5 (5-10)	26%	13%	5%	0%	—
UTSA	7.2 (4-10)	18%	9%	4%	0%	—
Memphis	6.1 (3-9)	10%	4%	2%	0%	—
Florida Atlantic	4.8 (2-8)	3%	1%	0%	0%	—
Temple	4.9 (2-8)	4%	1%	0%	0%	—
Rice	4.2 (2-7)	2%	1%	0%	0%	—
UAB	4.7 (2-8)	3%	1%	0%	0%	—
Tulsa	4.7 (2-7)	2%	1%	0%	0%	—
Charlotte	3.3 (1-6)	1%	0%	0%	0%	—

Mid-American

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Ohio	8.4 (6-11)	39%	22%	7%	0%	—
Western Michigan	8.2 (5-11)	50%	28%	7%	0%	—
Toledo	8.0 (5-11)	32%	17%	4%	0%	—
Miami (OH)	6.6 (4-10)	26%	12%	1%	0%	—
Central Michigan	5.6 (3-9)	9%	4%	0%	0%	—
Akron	5.2 (2-8)	11%	4%	0%	0%	—
Buffalo	5.6 (3-9)	14%	5%	0%	0%	—
Bowling Green	4.9 (2-8)	5%	2%	0%	0%	—
Eastern Michigan	5.5 (3-8)	6%	2%	0%	0%	—
Kent State	4.5 (2-7)	4%	2%	0%	0%	—
Ball State	4.6 (2-7)	4%	1%	0%	0%	—
Massachusetts	3.6 (1-6)	1%	0%	0%	0%	—

Pac-12

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Texas State	6.3 (3-9)	36%	19%	5%	0%	—
Boise State	6.3 (3-9)	37%	20%	4%	0%	—
Washington State	6.1 (3-9)	31%	16%	3%	0%	—
San Diego State	6.3 (3-9)	33%	17%	3%	0%	—
Fresno State	6.6 (4-10)	35%	18%	3%	0%	—
Utah State	5.0 (2-8)	17%	7%	1%	0%	—
Colorado State	3.7 (1-6)	5%	2%	0%	0%	—
Oregon State	3.6 (1-6)	6%	2%	0%	0%	—

Mountain West

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
UNLV	7.6 (5-11)	41%	23%	4%	0%	—
New Mexico	8.0 (5-11)	42%	24%	3%	0%	—
Hawai'i	7.7 (5-11)	41%	22%	3%	0%	—
Air Force	6.1 (3-9)	21%	9%	1%	0%	—
Northern Illinois	4.9 (2-8)	11%	4%	0%	0%	—
Nevada	5.4 (2-8)	13%	5%	0%	0%	—
Wyoming	5.3 (2-8)	12%	5%	0%	0%	—
San José State	5.0 (2-8)	14%	5%	0%	0%	—
UTEP	4.3 (2-7)	7%	2%	0%	0%	—

Conference USA

Team	Proj W	CCG	Win Conf	CFP	Bye	Natty
Jacksonville State	7.2 (4-10)	36%	20%	2%	0%	—
Western Kentucky	6.9 (4-10)	32%	17%	2%	0%	—
Kennesaw State	7.5 (5-10)	35%	18%	1%	0%	—
Florida International	6.6 (4-10)	24%	12%	1%	0%	—
Delaware	6.0 (3-9)	21%	10%	1%	0%	—
Missouri State	5.4 (3-8)	15%	7%	0%	0%	—
Liberty	5.9 (3-9)	17%	8%	0%	0%	—
Middle Tennessee	4.7 (2-8)	7%	3%	0%	0%	—
New Mexico State	5.1 (2-8)	8%	4%	0%	0%	—
Sam Houston	4.4 (2-7)	6%	2%	0%	0%	—

Proj W = mean projected wins including a possible conference championship game (10th to 90th percentile in parentheses). CFP = makes the 12-team playoff (5 conference champions + 7 at-large). The selection committee is modeled on its own 2014-2025 rankings (record, rating, schedule strength, quality wins, and the committee's measured power-conference lean), FCS opponents are modeled as one fixed weak team, and there is no market anchor. Independents play no conference championship game. Switch to the Projected Bracket tab for the most-likely field.