predicted sports
← UFC 274
Charles Oliveira
37-11 (1 NC) · Orthodox
vs
Justin Gaethje
28-5 · Orthodox
Lightweight
Result
Charles Oliveira def.
SUB · R1 3:22
Tale of the Tape
74"
Reach
70"
36
Age
37
3.23
SLpM
6.29
55%
Str. Acc.
57%
3.05
SApM
6.83
48%
Str. Def.
50%
2.29
TD Avg.
0.30
54%
TD Def.
73%
2.60
Sub. Avg.
0.00

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Charles Oliveira
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Charles Oliveira
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Charles Oliveira
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
By the Numbers
Charles Oliveira finishes 45% · finished 18% (11 fights)
When younger than opponent 100% (6-0)
As the rating favorite 86% (6-1)
Vs southpaws 75% (3-1)
Vs orthodox 71% (5-2)
Justin Gaethje finishes 22% · finished 33% (9 fights)
Giving up reach 83% (5-1)
When older than opponent 71% (5-2)
As the rating underdog 67% (6-3)
In title fights 67% (2-1)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.