predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
Ilia Topuria
17-1 · Orthodox
vs
Jai Herbert
14-6-1 · Orthodox
Lightweight
Result
Ilia Topuria def.
KO/TKO · R2 1:07
Tale of the Tape
69"
Reach
77"
29
Age
38
4.82
SLpM
3.19
50%
Str. Acc.
41%
3.97
SApM
3.34
62%
Str. Def.
52%
1.73
TD Avg.
0.42
95%
TD Def.
66%
0.90
Sub. Avg.
0.00

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Ilia Topuria
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Jai Herbert
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Ilia Topuria
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
By the Numbers
Ilia Topuria finishes 70% · finished 10% (10 fights)
Vs southpaws 100% (2-0)
When younger than opponent 90% (9-1)
As the rating favorite 89% (8-1)
Giving up reach 89% (8-1)
Jai Herbert finishes 22% · finished 33% (9 fights)
As the rating favorite 100% (3-0)
When younger than opponent 50% (1-1)
In the small (APEX) cage 50% (1-1)
With a reach advantage 44% (4-5)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.