predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
Tom Aspinall
15-3 (1 NC) · Orthodox
vs
Jake Collier
13-10 · Orthodox
Heavyweight
Result
Tom Aspinall def.
KO/TKO · R1 0:45
Tale of the Tape
78"
Reach
78"
33
Age
37
7.63
SLpM
5.80
67%
Str. Acc.
44%
3.62
SApM
5.08
56%
Str. Def.
50%
2.62
TD Avg.
0.71
100%
TD Def.
67%
1.30
Sub. Avg.
0.60

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

62%
younger fighters win at Heavyweight
221 fights · edge Tom Aspinall
60%
the rating favorite wins at Heavyweight
201 fights · edge Tom Aspinall
58%
of Heavyweight fights end inside the distance
221 fights
By the Numbers
Tom Aspinall finishes 89% · finished 11% (9 fights)
As the rating underdog 100% (3-0)
In title fights 100% (2-0)
In the small (APEX) cage 100% (2-0)
When younger than opponent 88% (7-1)
Jake Collier finishes 13% · finished 25% (8 fights)
As the rating favorite 50% (1-1)
In the small (APEX) cage 40% (2-3)
When younger than opponent 33% (1-2)
Vs orthodox 25% (2-6)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.