predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
Islam Makhachev
28-1 · Southpaw
vs
Thiago Moises
19-10 · Orthodox
Lightweight · APEX cage
Result
Islam Makhachev def.
SUB · R4 2:38
Tale of the Tape
70"
Reach
70"
34
Age
31
2.45
SLpM
2.52
58%
Str. Acc.
42%
1.45
SApM
4.40
61%
Str. Def.
52%
3.10
TD Avg.
1.37
91%
TD Def.
52%
1.00
Sub. Avg.
1.10

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Thiago Moises
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Islam Makhachev
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
51%
of fights in the APEX cage end in a finish
1,335 fights
By the Numbers
Islam Makhachev finishes 80% · finished 0% (10 fights)
When younger than opponent 100% (8-0)
When older than opponent 100% (2-0)
As the rating favorite 100% (7-0)
As the rating underdog 100% (3-0)
Thiago Moises finishes 25% · finished 33% (12 fights)
As the rating favorite 67% (4-2)
Giving up reach 67% (6-3)
Vs orthodox 63% (5-3)
In the small (APEX) cage 63% (5-3)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.