predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
Thiago Moises
19-10 · Orthodox
vs
Alexander Hernandez
18-9 · Orthodox
Lightweight · APEX cage
Result
Thiago Moises def.
U-DEC
Tale of the Tape
70"
Reach
72"
31
Age
33
2.52
SLpM
4.23
42%
Str. Acc.
40%
4.40
SApM
4.45
52%
Str. Def.
59%
1.37
TD Avg.
1.05
52%
TD Def.
68%
1.10
Sub. Avg.
0.10

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Thiago Moises
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Alexander Hernandez
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Alexander Hernandez
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
51%
of fights in the APEX cage end in a finish
1,335 fights
By the Numbers
Thiago Moises finishes 25% · finished 33% (12 fights)
As the rating favorite 67% (4-2)
Giving up reach 67% (6-3)
Vs orthodox 63% (5-3)
In the small (APEX) cage 63% (5-3)
Alexander Hernandez finishes 31% · finished 15% (13 fights)
Vs southpaws 100% (2-0)
Giving up reach 67% (2-1)
When younger than opponent 60% (6-4)
As the rating underdog 57% (4-3)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.