predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
Tom Aspinall
15-3 (1 NC) · Orthodox
vs
Andrei Arlovski
34-24 (2 NC) · Orthodox
Heavyweight · APEX cage
Result
Tom Aspinall def.
SUB · R2 1:09
Tale of the Tape
78"
Reach
77"
33
Age
47
7.63
SLpM
3.82
67%
Str. Acc.
45%
3.62
SApM
3.22
56%
Str. Def.
57%
2.62
TD Avg.
0.37
100%
TD Def.
76%
1.30
Sub. Avg.
0.20

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

62%
younger fighters win at Heavyweight
221 fights · edge Tom Aspinall
57%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Heavyweight
187 fights · edge Tom Aspinall
60%
the rating favorite wins at Heavyweight
201 fights · edge Tom Aspinall
58%
of Heavyweight fights end inside the distance
221 fights
51%
of fights in the APEX cage end in a finish
1,335 fights
By the Numbers
Tom Aspinall finishes 89% · finished 11% (9 fights)
As the rating underdog 100% (3-0)
In title fights 100% (2-0)
In the small (APEX) cage 100% (2-0)
When younger than opponent 88% (7-1)
Andrei Arlovski finishes 0% · finished 30% (10 fights)
As the rating favorite 67% (4-2)
With a reach advantage 67% (2-1)
When older than opponent 50% (5-5)
Vs orthodox 50% (5-5)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.