← UFC 330
Welterweight · Title
Base
52%
48%
Islam MakhachevIan Machado Garry
A near coin-flip — we give Islam Makhachev a slight edge at 52%.
How it's likely to end
🔒 KO / submission / decision & round breakdown with Pro
Tale of the Tape
70"
Reach
74"
34
Age
28
2.45
SLpM
4.78
58%
Str. Acc.
54%
1.45
SApM
2.86
61%
Str. Def.
52%
3.10
TD Avg.
0.92
91%
TD Def.
80%
1.00
Sub. Avg.
0.40
The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.
How fights like this tend to go
league history
League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.
62%
younger fighters win at Welterweight
362 fights · edge Ian Machado Garry
54%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Welterweight
320 fights · edge Ian Machado Garry
62%
the rating favorite wins at Welterweight
325 fights · edge Islam Makhachev
51%
of Welterweight fights end inside the distance
362 fights
46%
of title fights go the distance
127 fights
By the Numbers
Islam Makhachev
finishes 80% · finished 0% (10 fights)
When younger than opponent
100%
(8-0)
When older than opponent
100%
(2-0)
As the rating favorite
100%
(7-0)
As the rating underdog
100%
(3-0)
Ian Machado Garry
finishes 27% · finished 0% (11 fights)
As the rating favorite
100%
(8-0)
Vs southpaws
100%
(3-0)
With a reach advantage
100%
(4-0)
When younger than opponent
91%
(10-1)
Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.