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Flyweight
Result
Asu Almabayev def.
SUB · R3 3:33
Base called it (65% Almabayev)
The Panel
two analysts call every fight
S
Scoop
Works the sources
Pick · fight week
Asu Almabayev 65%
✓ called it
“Word is Johnson's tough, but Almabayev's a different animal on the ground and he's fighting in his backyard. Zhasui!”
🔒 Method call & full breakdown with Pro
V
Vega
Runs the numbers
Pick · fight week
Asu Almabayev 72%
✓ called it
“Almabayev's relentless grappling pressure overwhelms Johnson, forcing a tap in hostile Baku territory.”
🔒 Method call & full breakdown with ProFree pick & take; the method call and full writeup are Pro. Each analyst also calls every fight ~1 week out.
How it's likely to end
🔒 KO / submission / decision & round breakdown with Pro
Tale of the Tape
65"
Reach
70"
32
Age
35
2.28
SLpM
4.54
51%
Str. Acc.
49%
1.94
SApM
3.88
53%
Str. Def.
55%
4.74
TD Avg.
0.47
44%
TD Def.
66%
1.40
Sub. Avg.
0.40
The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.
How fights like this tend to go
league history
League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.
57%
younger fighters win at Flyweight
209 fights · edge Asu Almabayev
48%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Flyweight
186 fights · edge Charles Johnson
59%
the rating favorite wins at Flyweight
193 fights · edge Asu Almabayev
50%
of Flyweight fights end inside the distance
209 fights
By the Numbers
Asu Almabayev
finishes 38% · finished 13% (8 fights)
When older than opponent
100%
(2-0)
As the rating favorite
100%
(6-0)
Vs orthodox
100%
(4-0)
Giving up reach
86%
(6-1)
Charles Johnson
finishes 20% · finished 13% (15 fights)
When younger than opponent
100%
(3-0)
As the rating underdog
75%
(6-2)
Vs southpaws
60%
(3-2)
In the small (APEX) cage
56%
(5-4)
Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.