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Lightweight
Result
Matheus Camilo def.
KO/TKO · R1 1:31
Base called it (50% Camilo)
The Panel
two analysts call every fight
S
Scoop
Works the sources
Pick · fight week
Nazim Sadykhov 75%
✗ missed
“Word is Nazim Sadykhov completely rebuilt his camp after that last loss. He's not just winning in his Baku homecoming, he's making a statement.”
🔒 Method call & full breakdown with Pro
V
Vega
Runs the numbers
Pick · fight week
Nazim Sadykhov 65%
✗ missed
“Sadykhov's power and finishing instinct overwhelm Camilo's grappling-heavy approach—Black Wolf hunts early.”
🔒 Method call & full breakdown with ProFree pick & take; the method call and full writeup are Pro. Each analyst also calls every fight ~1 week out.
How it's likely to end
🔒 KO / submission / decision & round breakdown with Pro
Tale of the Tape
69"
Reach
69"
25
Age
32
2.22
SLpM
4.69
43%
Str. Acc.
48%
3.05
SApM
5.42
66%
Str. Def.
49%
4.16
TD Avg.
1.08
0%
TD Def.
72%
0.60
Sub. Avg.
0.20
The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.
How fights like this tend to go
league history
League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.
61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Matheus Camilo
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Matheus Camilo
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
By the Numbers
Matheus Camilo
finishes 33% · finished 33% (3 fights)
As the rating underdog
100%
(2-0)
When younger than opponent
67%
(2-1)
Nazim Sadykhov
finishes 67% · finished 33% (6 fights)
In the small (APEX) cage
100%
(3-0)
Giving up reach
80%
(4-1)
As the rating favorite
67%
(4-2)
When older than opponent
60%
(3-2)
Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.