Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria Prediction & Pick (UFC Freedom 250) | Predicted Sports
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Pro
UFC Freedom 250 · Lightweight · Title

Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria

June 14, 2026 · Washington, DC, USA

Justin Gaethje headshot
Justin Gaethje
28-5 · Orthodox
vs
Ilia Topuria headshot
Ilia Topuria
17-1 · Orthodox
Result
Justin Gaethje def. Ilia Topuria
KO/TKO · R4 5:00

Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria tale of the tape

70"
Reach
69"
37
Age
29
6.29
SLpM
4.82
57%
Str. Acc.
50%
6.83
SApM
3.97
50%
Str. Def.
62%
0.30
TD Avg.
1.73
73%
TD Def.
95%
0.00
Sub. Avg.
0.90

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go

🔒 League trends for this matchup profile with Pro

Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria by the numbers

Justin Gaethje finishes 22% · finished 33% (9 fights)
Giving up reach 83% (5-1)
When older than opponent 71% (5-2)
As the rating underdog 67% (6-3)
In title fights 67% (2-1)
Ilia Topuria finishes 70% · finished 10% (10 fights)
Vs southpaws 100% (2-0)
When younger than opponent 90% (9-1)
As the rating favorite 89% (8-1)
Giving up reach 89% (8-1)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.

Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria: your questions

Who won Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria?
Justin Gaethje won by KO/TKO · R4 5:00 at UFC Freedom 250.
When is Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria and what weight class is it?
Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria is a Lightweight bout for the title at UFC Freedom 250, June 14, 2026 in Washington, DC, USA.
How is Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria likely to end?
The fight ended by KO/TKO · R4 5:00.