predicted sports
← UFC Freedom 250
Justin Gaethje
28-5 · Orthodox
vs
Ilia Topuria
17-1 · Orthodox
Lightweight · Title
Result
Justin Gaethje def.
KO/TKO · R4 5:00
Tale of the Tape
70"
Reach
69"
37
Age
29
6.29
SLpM
4.82
57%
Str. Acc.
50%
6.83
SApM
3.97
50%
Str. Def.
62%
0.30
TD Avg.
1.73
73%
TD Def.
95%
0.00
Sub. Avg.
0.90

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Ilia Topuria
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Justin Gaethje
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Justin Gaethje
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
46%
of title fights go the distance
127 fights
By the Numbers
Justin Gaethje finishes 22% · finished 33% (9 fights)
Giving up reach 83% (5-1)
When older than opponent 71% (5-2)
As the rating underdog 67% (6-3)
In title fights 67% (2-1)
Ilia Topuria finishes 70% · finished 10% (10 fights)
Vs southpaws 100% (2-0)
When younger than opponent 90% (9-1)
As the rating favorite 89% (8-1)
Giving up reach 89% (8-1)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.