← UFC Freedom 250
Lightweight · Title
Result
Justin Gaethje def.
KO/TKO · R4 5:00
Tale of the Tape
70"
Reach
69"
37
Age
29
6.29
SLpM
4.82
57%
Str. Acc.
50%
6.83
SApM
3.97
50%
Str. Def.
62%
0.30
TD Avg.
1.73
73%
TD Def.
95%
0.00
Sub. Avg.
0.90
The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.
How fights like this tend to go
league history
League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.
61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Ilia Topuria
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Justin Gaethje
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Justin Gaethje
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
46%
of title fights go the distance
127 fights
By the Numbers
Justin Gaethje
finishes 22% · finished 33% (9 fights)
Giving up reach
83%
(5-1)
When older than opponent
71%
(5-2)
As the rating underdog
67%
(6-3)
In title fights
67%
(2-1)
Ilia Topuria
finishes 70% · finished 10% (10 fights)
Vs southpaws
100%
(2-0)
When younger than opponent
90%
(9-1)
As the rating favorite
89%
(8-1)
Giving up reach
89%
(8-1)
Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.