predicted sports
← UFC 328
Grant Dawson
24-3-1 · Switch
vs
Mateusz Rebecki
20-5 · Southpaw
Lightweight
Result
Grant Dawson def.
SUB · R3 4:42
Tale of the Tape
72"
Reach
66"
32
Age
33
3.14
SLpM
4.79
51%
Str. Acc.
46%
2.14
SApM
4.36
44%
Str. Def.
54%
3.58
TD Avg.
3.05
66%
TD Def.
53%
1.40
Sub. Avg.
0.40

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Grant Dawson
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Grant Dawson
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Grant Dawson
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
By the Numbers
Grant Dawson finishes 45% · finished 18% (11 fights)
As the rating underdog 100% (3-0)
When younger than opponent 89% (8-1)
Vs orthodox 89% (8-1)
With a reach advantage 83% (5-1)
Mateusz Rebecki finishes 25% · finished 25% (8 fights)
Vs orthodox 67% (4-2)
As the rating underdog 60% (3-2)
When younger than opponent 50% (1-1)
When older than opponent 50% (3-3)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.