UFC 321 · Heavyweight · Title
Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane
October 25, 2025 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane tale of the tape
78"
Reach
81"
33
Age
36
7.63
SLpM
5.40
67%
Str. Acc.
61%
3.62
SApM
2.31
56%
Str. Def.
60%
2.62
TD Avg.
0.66
100%
TD Def.
47%
1.30
Sub. Avg.
0.60
The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.
How fights like this tend to go
🔒 League trends for this matchup profile with ProTom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane by the numbers
Tom Aspinall
finishes 89% · finished 11% (9 fights)
As the rating underdog
100%
(3-0)
In title fights
100%
(2-0)
In the small (APEX) cage
100%
(2-0)
When younger than opponent
88%
(7-1)
Ciryl Gane
finishes 50% · finished 10% (10 fights)
When older than opponent
100%
(2-0)
As the rating underdog
100%
(6-0)
With a reach advantage
100%
(8-0)
In the small (APEX) cage
100%
(2-0)
Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.
Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane: your questions
- When is Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane and what weight class is it?
- Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane is a Heavyweight bout for the title at UFC 321, October 25, 2025 in Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
- How is Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane likely to end?
- We project KO/TKO, submission and decision probabilities, plus a round by round finish breakdown, from a per round hazard model. The full method and round read is on Pro.