predicted sports
← UFC 256
Charles Oliveira
37-11 (1 NC) · Orthodox
vs
Tony Ferguson
26-11 · Orthodox
Lightweight
Result
Charles Oliveira def.
U-DEC
Tale of the Tape
74"
Reach
76"
36
Age
42
3.23
SLpM
4.91
55%
Str. Acc.
45%
3.05
SApM
4.37
48%
Str. Def.
55%
2.29
TD Avg.
0.39
54%
TD Def.
66%
2.60
Sub. Avg.
0.90

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Charles Oliveira
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Tony Ferguson
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Charles Oliveira
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
By the Numbers
Charles Oliveira finishes 45% · finished 18% (11 fights)
When younger than opponent 100% (6-0)
As the rating favorite 86% (6-1)
Vs southpaws 75% (3-1)
Vs orthodox 71% (5-2)
Tony Ferguson finishes 0% · finished 57% (7 fights)
When older than opponent 0% (0-7)
As the rating underdog 0% (0-6)
Vs southpaws 0% (0-3)
Vs orthodox 0% (0-4)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.