predicted sports
← UFC 317
Ilia Topuria
17-1 · Orthodox
vs
Charles Oliveira
37-11 (1 NC) · Orthodox
Lightweight · Title
Result
Ilia Topuria def.
KO/TKO · R1 2:27
Tale of the Tape
69"
Reach
74"
29
Age
36
4.82
SLpM
3.23
50%
Str. Acc.
55%
3.97
SApM
3.05
62%
Str. Def.
48%
1.73
TD Avg.
2.29
95%
TD Def.
54%
0.90
Sub. Avg.
2.60

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Ilia Topuria
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Charles Oliveira
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Charles Oliveira
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
46%
of title fights go the distance
127 fights
By the Numbers
Ilia Topuria finishes 70% · finished 10% (10 fights)
Vs southpaws 100% (2-0)
When younger than opponent 90% (9-1)
As the rating favorite 89% (8-1)
Giving up reach 89% (8-1)
Charles Oliveira finishes 45% · finished 18% (11 fights)
When younger than opponent 100% (6-0)
As the rating favorite 86% (6-1)
Vs southpaws 75% (3-1)
Vs orthodox 71% (5-2)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.