predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
Melquizael Costa
26-8 · Southpaw
vs
Julian Erosa
31-14 · Southpaw
Featherweight · APEX cage
Result
Melquizael Costa def.
U-DEC
Tale of the Tape
71"
Reach
74"
29
Age
36
4.29
SLpM
6.18
47%
Str. Acc.
48%
3.19
SApM
6.31
50%
Str. Def.
48%
1.53
TD Avg.
1.73
50%
TD Def.
61%
0.80
Sub. Avg.
0.70

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

55%
younger fighters win at Featherweight
365 fights · edge Melquizael Costa
50%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Featherweight
315 fights · edge Julian Erosa
55%
the rating favorite wins at Featherweight
320 fights · edge Melquizael Costa
49%
of Featherweight fights end inside the distance
365 fights
51%
of fights in the APEX cage end in a finish
1,335 fights
By the Numbers
Melquizael Costa finishes 40% · finished 20% (10 fights)
Vs orthodox 86% (6-1)
As the rating favorite 75% (3-1)
When younger than opponent 67% (6-3)
As the rating underdog 67% (4-2)
Julian Erosa finishes 46% · finished 31% (13 fights)
As the rating underdog 83% (5-1)
Vs orthodox 70% (7-3)
With a reach advantage 70% (7-3)
When younger than opponent 67% (2-1)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.