predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
Rafael Estevam
14-1 · Orthodox
vs
Jesus Aguilar
12-4 · Orthodox
Flyweight · APEX cage
Result
Rafael Estevam def.
U-DEC
Tale of the Tape
69"
Reach
62"
29
Age
30
2.40
SLpM
2.54
39%
Str. Acc.
38%
3.90
SApM
2.29
45%
Str. Def.
61%
4.91
TD Avg.
1.52
66%
TD Def.
45%
0.20
Sub. Avg.
1.10

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

57%
younger fighters win at Flyweight
209 fights · edge Rafael Estevam
48%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Flyweight
186 fights · edge Rafael Estevam
59%
the rating favorite wins at Flyweight
193 fights · edge Rafael Estevam
50%
of Flyweight fights end inside the distance
209 fights
51%
of fights in the APEX cage end in a finish
1,335 fights
By the Numbers
Rafael Estevam finishes 0% · finished 25% (4 fights)
When younger than opponent 75% (3-1)
In the small (APEX) cage 75% (3-1)
As the rating favorite 67% (2-1)
Vs orthodox 67% (2-1)
Jesus Aguilar finishes 29% · finished 14% (7 fights)
As the rating favorite 80% (4-1)
When younger than opponent 67% (2-1)
Vs orthodox 60% (3-2)
Giving up reach 57% (4-3)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.