predicted sports
← UFC 310
Michael Chiesa
20-7 · Southpaw
vs
Max Griffin
20-13 · Orthodox
Welterweight
Result
Michael Chiesa def.
SUB · R3 1:56
Tale of the Tape
75"
Reach
76"
38
Age
40
2.02
SLpM
3.70
40%
Str. Acc.
47%
1.73
SApM
3.69
57%
Str. Def.
58%
3.11
TD Avg.
1.44
65%
TD Def.
69%
1.00
Sub. Avg.
0.20

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

62%
younger fighters win at Welterweight
362 fights · edge Michael Chiesa
54%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Welterweight
320 fights · edge Max Griffin
62%
the rating favorite wins at Welterweight
325 fights · edge Michael Chiesa
51%
of Welterweight fights end inside the distance
362 fights
By the Numbers
Michael Chiesa finishes 38% · finished 25% (8 fights)
When younger than opponent 100% (4-0)
As the rating favorite 100% (3-0)
Giving up reach 80% (4-1)
Vs orthodox 63% (5-3)
Max Griffin finishes 20% · finished 10% (10 fights)
When younger than opponent 100% (2-0)
As the rating underdog 67% (2-1)
In the small (APEX) cage 67% (4-2)
With a reach advantage 63% (5-3)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.