predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
Clayton Carpenter
8-3 · Orthodox
vs
Lucas Rocha
18-2 · Orthodox
Flyweight · APEX cage
Result
Clayton Carpenter def.
SUB · R2 2:12
Tale of the Tape
66"
Reach
64"
30
Age
25
3.88
SLpM
5.09
50%
Str. Acc.
49%
4.47
SApM
3.67
49%
Str. Def.
56%
1.75
TD Avg.
1.64
50%
TD Def.
76%
1.00
Sub. Avg.
0.00

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

57%
younger fighters win at Flyweight
209 fights · edge Lucas Rocha
48%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Flyweight
186 fights · edge Clayton Carpenter
59%
the rating favorite wins at Flyweight
193 fights · edge Lucas Rocha
50%
of Flyweight fights end inside the distance
209 fights
51%
of fights in the APEX cage end in a finish
1,335 fights
By the Numbers
Clayton Carpenter finishes 40% · finished 20% (5 fights)
As the rating favorite 100% (2-0)
With a reach advantage 100% (2-0)
In the small (APEX) cage 100% (2-0)
When older than opponent 50% (1-1)
Lucas Rocha finishes 0% · finished 50% (2 fights)
When younger than opponent 50% (1-1)
Vs orthodox 50% (1-1)
Giving up reach 50% (1-1)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.