predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
Grant Dawson
24-3-1 · Switch
vs
Rafa Garcia
19-4 · Orthodox
Lightweight · APEX cage
Result
Grant Dawson def.
KO/TKO · R2 1:42
Tale of the Tape
72"
Reach
70"
32
Age
31
3.14
SLpM
4.28
51%
Str. Acc.
44%
2.14
SApM
4.42
44%
Str. Def.
61%
3.58
TD Avg.
3.22
66%
TD Def.
77%
1.40
Sub. Avg.
0.40

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Rafa Garcia
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Grant Dawson
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Rafa Garcia
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
51%
of fights in the APEX cage end in a finish
1,335 fights
By the Numbers
Grant Dawson finishes 45% · finished 18% (11 fights)
As the rating underdog 100% (3-0)
When younger than opponent 89% (8-1)
Vs orthodox 89% (8-1)
With a reach advantage 83% (5-1)
Rafa Garcia finishes 18% · finished 9% (11 fights)
Vs orthodox 71% (5-2)
When younger than opponent 67% (6-3)
As the rating favorite 67% (2-1)
Vs southpaws 67% (2-1)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.