predicted sports
← UFC 254
Khabib Nurmagomedov
29-0 · Orthodox
vs
Justin Gaethje
28-5 · Orthodox
Lightweight · Title
Result
Khabib Nurmagomedov def.
SUB · R2 1:34
Tale of the Tape
70"
Reach
70"
37
Age
37
4.10
SLpM
6.29
48%
Str. Acc.
57%
1.75
SApM
6.83
65%
Str. Def.
50%
5.32
TD Avg.
0.30
84%
TD Def.
73%
0.80
Sub. Avg.
0.00

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Justin Gaethje
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Justin Gaethje
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
46%
of title fights go the distance
127 fights
By the Numbers
Justin Gaethje finishes 22% · finished 33% (9 fights)
Giving up reach 83% (5-1)
When older than opponent 71% (5-2)
As the rating underdog 67% (6-3)
In title fights 67% (2-1)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.