predicted sports
← UFC 295
Steve Erceg
14-4 · Orthodox
vs
Alessandro Costa
16-5 · Orthodox
Flyweight
Result
Steve Erceg def.
U-DEC
Tale of the Tape
68"
Reach
67"
30
Age
30
4.64
SLpM
3.86
47%
Str. Acc.
46%
4.07
SApM
3.70
55%
Str. Def.
56%
1.13
TD Avg.
0.77
67%
TD Def.
86%
0.40
Sub. Avg.
0.40

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

57%
younger fighters win at Flyweight
209 fights · edge Alessandro Costa
48%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Flyweight
186 fights · edge Steve Erceg
59%
the rating favorite wins at Flyweight
193 fights · edge Steve Erceg
50%
of Flyweight fights end inside the distance
209 fights
By the Numbers
Steve Erceg finishes 13% · finished 13% (8 fights)
Vs southpaws 100% (2-0)
In the small (APEX) cage 100% (2-0)
As the rating underdog 67% (2-1)
With a reach advantage 67% (2-1)
Alessandro Costa finishes 57% · finished 29% (7 fights)
As the rating favorite 80% (4-1)
In the small (APEX) cage 75% (3-1)
When older than opponent 67% (2-1)
Giving up reach 60% (3-2)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.