predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
King Green
35-17-1 (1 NC) · Orthodox
vs
Grant Dawson
24-3-1 · Switch
Lightweight · APEX cage
Result
King Green def.
KO/TKO · R1 0:33
Tale of the Tape
71"
Reach
72"
39
Age
32
6.46
SLpM
3.14
53%
Str. Acc.
51%
3.55
SApM
2.14
62%
Str. Def.
44%
1.33
TD Avg.
3.58
72%
TD Def.
66%
0.30
Sub. Avg.
1.40

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Grant Dawson
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Grant Dawson
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Grant Dawson
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
51%
of fights in the APEX cage end in a finish
1,335 fights
By the Numbers
King Green finishes 29% · finished 29% (17 fights)
When younger than opponent 100% (4-0)
As the rating favorite 88% (7-1)
Giving up reach 67% (6-3)
Vs orthodox 57% (4-3)
Grant Dawson finishes 45% · finished 18% (11 fights)
As the rating underdog 100% (3-0)
When younger than opponent 89% (8-1)
Vs orthodox 89% (8-1)
With a reach advantage 83% (5-1)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.