predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
Kyle Nelson
17-7-1 · Switch
vs
Fernando Padilla
16-6 · Orthodox
Featherweight · APEX cage
Result
Kyle Nelson def.
U-DEC
Tale of the Tape
71"
Reach
76"
35
Age
29
3.60
SLpM
6.07
45%
Str. Acc.
40%
4.58
SApM
5.74
53%
Str. Def.
52%
1.18
TD Avg.
0.00
66%
TD Def.
100%
0.50
Sub. Avg.
0.60

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

55%
younger fighters win at Featherweight
365 fights · edge Fernando Padilla
50%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Featherweight
315 fights · edge Fernando Padilla
55%
the rating favorite wins at Featherweight
320 fights · edge Fernando Padilla
49%
of Featherweight fights end inside the distance
365 fights
51%
of fights in the APEX cage end in a finish
1,335 fights
By the Numbers
Kyle Nelson finishes 13% · finished 38% (8 fights)
When younger than opponent 60% (3-2)
As the rating underdog 57% (4-3)
Vs orthodox 50% (2-2)
With a reach advantage 50% (1-1)
Fernando Padilla finishes 50% · finished 25% (4 fights)
With a reach advantage 67% (2-1)
In the small (APEX) cage 67% (2-1)
When younger than opponent 50% (2-2)
As the rating favorite 50% (1-1)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.