UFC Fight Night · Lightweight · APEX
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan
October 31, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
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🤖 The AI field reports during fight week, before the card locks. Check back then.
How Moicano vs Nolan is likely to end
🔒 KO / submission / decision & round breakdown with ProRenato Moicano vs Tom Nolan tale of the tape
72"
Reach
73"
37
Age
26
4.10
SLpM
4.84
49%
Str. Acc.
45%
3.55
SApM
3.74
59%
Str. Def.
48%
1.68
TD Avg.
1.08
64%
TD Def.
58%
0.60
Sub. Avg.
1.40
The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.
How fights like this tend to go
🔒 League trends for this matchup profile with ProRenato Moicano and Tom Nolan by the numbers
Renato Moicano
finishes 55% · finished 18% (11 fights)
Vs orthodox
100%
(4-0)
Giving up reach
100%
(3-0)
In the small (APEX) cage
100%
(3-0)
When older than opponent
71%
(5-2)
Tom Nolan
finishes 33% · finished 17% (6 fights)
As the rating underdog
100%
(3-0)
When younger than opponent
83%
(5-1)
Vs orthodox
83%
(5-1)
With a reach advantage
75%
(3-1)
Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan: your questions
- When is Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan and what weight class is it?
- Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan is a Lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night, October 31, 2026 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.
- How is Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan likely to end?
- We project KO/TKO, submission and decision probabilities, plus a round by round finish breakdown, from a per round hazard model. The full method and round read is on Pro.