predicted sports
← UFC 253
Israel Adesanya
24-6 · Switch
vs
Paulo Costa
16-4 · Orthodox
Middleweight · Title
Result
Israel Adesanya def.
KO/TKO · R2 3:59
Tale of the Tape
80"
Reach
72"
36
Age
35
4.03
SLpM
6.15
48%
Str. Acc.
59%
3.22
SApM
5.96
55%
Str. Def.
49%
0.05
TD Avg.
0.30
76%
TD Def.
77%
0.10
Sub. Avg.
0.00

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Middleweight
379 fights · edge Paulo Costa
52%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Middleweight
341 fights · edge Israel Adesanya
60%
the rating favorite wins at Middleweight
343 fights · edge Paulo Costa
58%
of Middleweight fights end inside the distance
379 fights
46%
of title fights go the distance
127 fights
By the Numbers
Israel Adesanya finishes 18% · finished 36% (11 fights)
In title fights 56% (5-4)
When younger than opponent 50% (2-2)
As the rating underdog 50% (5-5)
With a reach advantage 45% (5-6)
Paulo Costa finishes 14% · finished 14% (7 fights)
Vs southpaws 75% (3-1)
When older than opponent 50% (1-1)
As the rating underdog 43% (3-4)
When younger than opponent 40% (2-3)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.