← UFC 286
Lightweight
Result
Justin Gaethje def.
M-DEC
Tale of the Tape
70"
Reach
71"
37
Age
33
6.29
SLpM
4.71
57%
Str. Acc.
52%
6.83
SApM
4.81
50%
Str. Def.
50%
0.30
TD Avg.
1.00
73%
TD Def.
90%
0.00
Sub. Avg.
0.00
The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.
How fights like this tend to go
league history
League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.
61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Rafael Fiziev
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Rafael Fiziev
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Justin Gaethje
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
By the Numbers
Justin Gaethje
finishes 22% · finished 33% (9 fights)
Giving up reach
83%
(5-1)
When older than opponent
71%
(5-2)
As the rating underdog
67%
(6-3)
In title fights
67%
(2-1)
Rafael Fiziev
finishes 36% · finished 18% (11 fights)
Giving up reach
80%
(4-1)
When older than opponent
75%
(3-1)
As the rating favorite
67%
(4-2)
In 5-round fights
67%
(2-1)
Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.