predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
Serghei Spivac
18-6 · Orthodox
vs
Derrick Lewis
29-14 (1 NC) · Orthodox
Heavyweight · APEX cage
Result
Serghei Spivac def.
SUB · R1 3:05
Tale of the Tape
78"
Reach
79"
31
Age
41
3.57
SLpM
2.41
47%
Str. Acc.
48%
4.23
SApM
2.79
52%
Str. Def.
38%
3.82
TD Avg.
0.53
63%
TD Def.
51%
0.50
Sub. Avg.
0.00

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

62%
younger fighters win at Heavyweight
221 fights · edge Serghei Spivac
57%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Heavyweight
187 fights · edge Derrick Lewis
60%
the rating favorite wins at Heavyweight
201 fights · edge Derrick Lewis
58%
of Heavyweight fights end inside the distance
221 fights
51%
of fights in the APEX cage end in a finish
1,335 fights
By the Numbers
Serghei Spivac finishes 42% · finished 25% (12 fights)
With a reach advantage 100% (2-0)
In the small (APEX) cage 83% (5-1)
As the rating favorite 75% (6-2)
When younger than opponent 67% (8-4)
Derrick Lewis finishes 46% · finished 46% (13 fights)
In the small (APEX) cage 75% (3-1)
As the rating favorite 67% (2-1)
Giving up reach 67% (4-2)
In 5-round fights 63% (5-3)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.