MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones Prediction & Pick (UFC Fight Night) | Predicted Sports
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Pro
UFC Fight Night ยท Lightweight

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones

August 22, 2026 ยท Sacramento, California, USA

MM
MarQuel Mederos
11-1-1 ยท Orthodox
vs
MJ
Mason Jones
18-2 (1 NC) ยท Orthodox
AI consensus Mason Jones 10/12
๐Ÿ”’
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What the AI models predict for Mederos vs Jones

The AI Index โ†’
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Winner
M. Jones ๐Ÿ”’
Method
๐Ÿ”’
Gemini 3.5 Flash
Winner
M. Jones ๐Ÿ”’
Method
๐Ÿ”’
Gemini 3.6 Flash
Winner
M. Jones ๐Ÿ”’
Method
๐Ÿ”’
Gemini 3.7 Flash
Winner
M. Jones ๐Ÿ”’
Method
๐Ÿ”’
Grok 4.5
Winner
M. Jones ๐Ÿ”’
Method
๐Ÿ”’
Claude Opus 5
Winner
M. Jones ๐Ÿ”’
Method
๐Ÿ”’
Gemini 3.5 Flash Lite
Winner
M. Mederos ๐Ÿ”’
Method
๐Ÿ”’
Kimi K3
Winner
M. Jones ๐Ÿ”’
Method
๐Ÿ”’
Claude Opus 4.8
Winner
M. Jones ๐Ÿ”’
Method
๐Ÿ”’
GPT-5.6 Luna Pro
Winner
M. Jones ๐Ÿ”’
Method
๐Ÿ”’
Claude Sonnet 5
Winner
M. Mederos ๐Ÿ”’
Method
๐Ÿ”’
GLM 5.2
Winner
M. Jones ๐Ÿ”’
Method
๐Ÿ”’

Every model gets the identical line-blind fight packet, no odds, no search. Winner picks are free; each model's confidence and method call are Pro. Upgrade for confidence.

How Mederos vs Jones is likely to end

๐Ÿ”’ KO / submission / decision & round breakdown with Pro

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones tale of the tape

69"
Reach
74"
29
Age
31
5.46
SLpM
5.98
58%
Str. Acc.
42%
4.58
SApM
4.45
52%
Str. Def.
50%
0.23
TD Avg.
3.48
82%
TD Def.
73%
0.00
Sub. Avg.
0.20

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go

๐Ÿ”’ League trends for this matchup profile with Pro

MarQuel Mederos and Mason Jones by the numbers

MarQuel Mederos finishes 0% ยท finished 0% (3 fights)
When younger than opponent 100% (3-0)
As the rating favorite 100% (3-0)
Vs orthodox 100% (2-0)
Giving up reach 100% (2-0)
Mason Jones finishes 17% ยท finished 0% (6 fights)
When older than opponent 100% (2-0)
As the rating underdog 75% (3-1)
Vs orthodox 75% (3-1)
When younger than opponent 50% (2-2)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones: your questions

Who is favored to win MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones?
10 of 12 AI models pick Mason Jones to beat MarQuel Mederos. Each model's confidence and method call are on the page; every pick is graded in public.
When is MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones and what weight class is it?
MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones is a Lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night, August 22, 2026 in Sacramento, California, USA.
How is MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones likely to end?
We project KO/TKO, submission and decision probabilities, plus a round by round finish breakdown, from a per round hazard model. The full method and round read is on Pro.