predicted sports
← UFC 277
Sergei Pavlovich
21-3 · Southpaw
vs
Derrick Lewis
29-14 (1 NC) · Orthodox
Heavyweight
Result
Sergei Pavlovich def.
KO/TKO · R1 0:55
Tale of the Tape
84"
Reach
79"
34
Age
41
4.49
SLpM
2.41
44%
Str. Acc.
48%
3.58
SApM
2.79
56%
Str. Def.
38%
0.47
TD Avg.
0.53
75%
TD Def.
51%
0.00
Sub. Avg.
0.00

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

62%
younger fighters win at Heavyweight
221 fights · edge Sergei Pavlovich
57%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Heavyweight
187 fights · edge Sergei Pavlovich
60%
the rating favorite wins at Heavyweight
201 fights · edge Sergei Pavlovich
58%
of Heavyweight fights end inside the distance
221 fights
By the Numbers
Sergei Pavlovich finishes 56% · finished 11% (9 fights)
When younger than opponent 83% (5-1)
With a reach advantage 78% (7-2)
As the rating favorite 75% (6-2)
Vs orthodox 75% (6-2)
Derrick Lewis finishes 46% · finished 46% (13 fights)
In the small (APEX) cage 75% (3-1)
As the rating favorite 67% (2-1)
Giving up reach 67% (4-2)
In 5-round fights 63% (5-3)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.