predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
Mario Bautista
17-3 · Switch
vs
Brian Kelleher
24-16 · Switch
Bantamweight · APEX cage
Result
Mario Bautista def.
SUB · R1 2:27
Tale of the Tape
69"
Reach
66"
32
Age
39
5.30
SLpM
3.31
48%
Str. Acc.
41%
3.98
SApM
4.59
54%
Str. Def.
54%
1.91
TD Avg.
1.68
55%
TD Def.
60%
0.80
Sub. Avg.
0.70

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

59%
younger fighters win at Bantamweight
349 fights · edge Mario Bautista
50%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Bantamweight
303 fights · edge Mario Bautista
58%
the rating favorite wins at Bantamweight
305 fights · edge Mario Bautista
43%
of Bantamweight fights end inside the distance
349 fights
51%
of fights in the APEX cage end in a finish
1,335 fights
By the Numbers
Mario Bautista finishes 36% · finished 9% (11 fights)
With a reach advantage 100% (3-0)
In the small (APEX) cage 100% (6-0)
As the rating favorite 86% (6-1)
When younger than opponent 83% (5-1)
Brian Kelleher finishes 13% · finished 50% (8 fights)
In the small (APEX) cage 60% (3-2)
Giving up reach 43% (3-4)
When older than opponent 38% (3-5)
Vs orthodox 33% (2-4)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.