New on the site

Every model and tracked expert on our board now has a head-to-head page against every other one: the same games, graded finals, and the record of who was actually right on the days they disagreed. It started as a way to settle the Claude versus ChatGPT argument and turned into the full grid, so you can pull up any two of them and see it for yourself.

SD @ AZ · 9:40 PM ET · O/U 9

This is the only board tonight where the models split on a winner, eight for Arizona and three for San Diego, and it is also the only game where all eleven put the total over. The reason is not the air. The roof at Chase Field is shut, it is 76 degrees inside and the wind reads zero. It is the pitching: Walker Buehler has not finished six innings in any of his last three starts, and Kohl Drake is a rookie making his fourth career start who has never thrown a sixth, so both bullpens get the ball early in a park whose triples index of 204 is the highest in baseball by a distance. The first three games of this series went 6 runs, then 13, then 14.

MIN @ KC · 7:40 PM ET · O/U 9

Every model takes Kansas City and not one of them means it. Confidence runs 50 to 53 percent, the softest agreement anywhere on the slate, with Claude Opus 4.8 landing on exactly 50, and that reads about right. Michael Wacha carries a 3.51 ERA into this one and the Royals are still 7-15 in his 22 starts, because Kansas City has scored him exactly three runs a game and been held to two or fewer in nine of them. Bailey Ober answers with a 2.72 ERA at home against 7.15 across seven road starts, and he is on the road. Both offenses have averaged around 3.3 runs a game over the last fortnight, Minnesota has lost four straight without Byron Buxton, and Kansas City leads the series 2-0 going for the sweep.

CWS @ BOS · 7:10 PM ET · O/U 9

The most one-sided board of the night: all eleven models on Boston at an average 63.7 percent, and all eleven with the total under 9. Boston has won nine of its last ten at six runs a game, but the lineup that did that is not quite the one taking the field, with Willson Contreras scratched by illness on top of Roman Anthony, Triston Casas and Trevor Story already on the injured list. Luis Castillo makes his White Sox debut after the deadline trade carrying a 5.06 ERA, and Ranger Suarez has not finished a fifth inning since June 29, so this probably comes down to which bullpen blinks first.