New on the site

We retired a model this week that was not losing, and the receipts are worth two minutes of your day: identical accuracy to its cheaper sibling on the same games, identical calibration, identical closing line value, at fifty times the token price. The full math is on the site, including the one market where the expensive model really was different, just not in the direction its invoice suggests.

Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez · main event, ~5pm ET

The rarest board we track: all twelve models on Uros Medic, and all twelve picked the same finish, KO or TKO, something the full field has managed only a handful of times across every card we have graded. The honest wrinkle is price. The models average 65 percent on Medic while the market prices him near 77, so the field likes the direction more than the number. Weigh-ins were clean across the whole card on Friday, both these men at 171 (UFC.com).

Jan Blachowicz vs Navajo Stirling · co-main, ~4:30pm ET

Zero of twelve votes for the former light heavyweight champion. The field is unanimous on Navajo Stirling at 75 percent average confidence, and ten of the twelve call a knockout. Blachowicz, 43, once held the belt this division answers to; Stirling is unbeaten at 10-0 and the books have moved him to about -300 (Action Network). The models and the market are reading the same torch pass. The card runs early on US time, with the main card going mid afternoon Eastern.