New on the site

We spent most of July watching Grok 4.5 call overs that kept landing under, to the point where its over calls went 26 and 52 as picks. The new piece walks through how a model being reliably wrong turned into the most interesting rule we track, receipts included. If you only read one thing on the site this week, make it this one.

NYY @ CWS · 2:10pm ET

The closest board of the day: six models on the Yankees, five on the White Sox, and an average confidence of just 53 percent. The market agrees and prices it near a coin flip. Sean Burke carries a 1.61 ERA since the middle of June while Ryan Weathers has allowed six or more hits in six straight starts, so the whole argument runs through the mound.

KC @ MIN · 1:40pm ET

All twelve models are on Minnesota at 57 percent average confidence, one day after the field took the Twins and watched Kansas City shut them out 4-0. Bailey Ober gets the ball against Noah Cameron this time, the total sits at 9, and DraftKings reported nearly three quarters of the money on the under this morning.

CHC @ STL · 2:15pm ET

Ten of eleven models like the Cubs on the road at 54 percent average confidence. The field liked the Cubs in this matchup yesterday too and St. Louis took it 3-2, so this is a rerun with the same conviction.