Can Grok predict sports?
Grok has 1 version forecasting live, plus 1 retired kept on the record. Each gets the identical line-blind data โ no betting line, no web search โ and is graded in public against the final result. Here's the whole lineage.
How it's graded
Every model โ Grok's and the rest of the field โ gets the exact same prompt: identical data packet, identical instructions and output schema, ~3 hours before first pitch with the betting line removed and web search off. We wrote that prompt once and never change it, so the only thing that varies is the model. Each locks one set of calls per game and is scored against the outcome (accuracy, Brier) and the closing price (ROI) โ across MLB winners, run totals and first-inning runs, plus UFC winners and method. See the full leaderboard or the Can AI beat Vegas? essay.
Other models on the board
GLM 5.2's graded record, line-blind.
Claude Opus 4.8's graded record, line-blind.
Gemini 3.5 Flash's graded record, line-blind.
DeepSeek V4 Pro's graded record, line-blind.
Claude Sonnet 5's graded record, line-blind.
GPT-5.6 Sol Pro's graded record, line-blind.
Frequently asked
Can Grok predict sports?
We grade every Grok model in public. Grok's strongest so far is Grok 4.5, 98โ87 (53% winner accuracy, Brier 0.249) over 185 MLB games forecast line-blind. Each model gets identical data with no betting line and is scored against the final result.
Which Grok model predicts sports best?
On the Index, Grok 4.5 currently leads Grok on Brier score (0.249) over 185 graded MLB games. Compare each model's full record below.
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